Poll: Biden leads in Pennsylvania, tied with Trump in Arizona

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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a single-digit lead in Pennsylvania and is in a dead heat with President Donald Trump in Arizona, according to new surveys of the pair of swing states.

An NBC News/Marist poll released Monday, one day before Election Day, reports that more than half of Pennsylvania likely voters, 51 percent, prefer Biden and 46 favor Trump — a lead of 5 percentage points for the former vice president.

Biden’s advantage in Pennsylvania — the state which many pollsters and political analysts predict could determine the outcome of the White House race — has diminished since September, when the previous version of the NBC News/Marist Pennsylvania poll showed him ahead of Trump by 9 percentage points, 53-44 percent.

Biden’s latest lead is more in line with the RealClearPolitics average of recent Pennsylvania surveys, conducted Oct. 27-Nov. 2, which shows him with a 2.9-point edge over Trump in the state. Trump won Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes by 1.2 percentage points in 2016.

Another NBC News/Marist poll published Monday has Biden and Trump tied among Arizona likely voters, each earning 48 percent support. The previous version of the NBC News/Marist Arizona poll, which surveyed the state’s registered voters in July, showed Biden with a 5-point lead, 50-45 percent.

The RealClearPolitics average of recent Arizona surveys, conducted Oct. 23-Nov. 1, shows Biden with a lead in the state of less than 1 percentage point. Trump won Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes by 4.1 percentage points in 2016.

The new NBC News/Marist Arizona poll also has incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally trailing Democrat Mark Kelly in the competitive race for her seat by 6 percentage points among likely voters, 52-46 percent. Kelly previously notched a 12-point lead, 53-41 percent, in July.

McSally is widely viewed as one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans on the ballot Tuesday, and her contest with Kelly may decide whether Democrats are able to retake control of the chamber. The RealClearPolitics average of recent Arizona Senate polling has Kelly ahead by 5.8 percentage points.

The NBC News/Marist polls were conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, surveying 772 Pennsylvania likely voters and 717 Arizona likely voters. The margins of sampling error are plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for the Pennsylvania results and plus or minus 4.5 points for the Arizona results.

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