Poll: Biden up 8 points in Michigan, 10 points in Wisconsin

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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has maintained his leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to new surveys of the pair of Midwestern battlegrounds that were vital to President Donald Trump’s victory four years ago.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday reports that 48 percent of likely Michigan voters surveyed back Biden, while 40 percent favor Trump — an 8-point edge for the former vice president.

Biden was ahead of Trump by 11 points among the state’s registered voters in June, 47-36 percent, according to the previous version of the Times/Siena Michigan survey.

The latest poll also shows Biden enjoying a wider, 10-point advantage among likely voters in Wisconsin, with a majority — 51 percent — of those surveyed preferring him to the Republican incumbent.

In the previous version of the Times/Siena Wisconsin survey, conducted last month, Biden outpaced Trump by 5 percentage points, 48-43 percent, among likely voters.

Biden’s leads in the new Times/Siena surveys represent an improvement on his recent public polling averages in the two swing states.

According to a RealClearPolitics average of Michigan surveys conducted from Sept. 14-Oct. 9, Biden remains 6.7 percentage points ahead of Trump in general election polling.

The RealClearPolitics average of Wisconsin polling, which includes surveys from Sept. 20-Oct. 5, shows Biden ahead of Trump by 5.5 percentage points.

Michigan and Wisconsin, along with Pennsylvania, are part of the trio of Great Lakes states that helped secure Trump’s Electoral College win over former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Trump won Michigan’s 16 electoral votes by 0.3 percentage points in 2016, and he won Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes by 1 percentage point.

The results of the Times/Siena surveys follow POLITICO’s latest Election Forecast, which moved Wisconsin from “toss-up” to “lean Democratic.”

Taken together, the states in the POLITICO forecast that are rated “solid Democratic,” “likely Democratic” and “lean Democratic” would give Biden 279 Electoral College votes, enough to put him in the White House.

The Times/Siena poll surveyed 614 likely Michigan voters and 789 likely Wisconsin voters from Oct. 6-11. The margin of sampling error is plus-or-minus 4.6 percentage points for the Michigan results and plus-or-minus 4 points for the Wisconsin results.

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